Correlation vs. Causation
As you all know, Correlation does not imply causation...
However this is a very common mistake that threatens the survival of humanity.
Together, we can fight it.
Be
attentive to newspapers, television,conversation with fellow
human beings, politicians... and post any correlation/causation
confusion you find as a comment.
[Posting some examples I received by email]
ReplyDeleteOne very common example is about consumption of ice and beer. There is a high correlation between consumption and beer. Of course eating more ice doesn’t make people drink more beer or the other way around. A third factor kicks in weather.
[Posting some examples I received by email]
ReplyDeleteWhat about the Generation X that was derailing in the US. They thought their prevention programs were paying off but it was the decision to allow abortion that was the true cause of the drop in crime… see freakonomics, this book holds a few other fun examples
Good example here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ncl.ac.uk/press.office/press.release/item/names-give-cows-a-lotta-bottle
Not sure if naming a cow will increase its milk production!
[Posting some examples I received by email]
ReplyDeleteA nice example in biology is the long-time controversy that MMR vaccines caused autism.
This originated in a study by Andrew Wakefield of London’s Royal Free Hospital where an association was suggested between the 2 events (MMR vaccination in children and autism). See the “findings” section of the abstract here :
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/9500320
At the end of the 90’s and early 2000’s, many parents refused to vaccinate their children, resulting in a corresponding rise in measles cases, causing serious illness and fatalities.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/article1033338.ece
Afterwards it was proven that the above mentioned paper was fraudulent and that even scientists and the public were misled. Apparently Wakefield had received considerable amounts of money before the publication by people seeking litigation against vaccine manufacturers.
Many studies have since been published to show that there is no association between vaccination and autism : http://cid.oxfordjournals.org/content/48/4/456.full
http://dilbert.com/2011-11-28/
ReplyDelete